Nevertheless, between 1822 and the American Civil War, some 15,000 African Americans settled in Liberia. As these preconditions are considered to make a country prone to civil wars and instability, the question about the future of the country is more relevant than ever. Without an established democracy in these states, the governing ethnic group generally tries to oppress all others by privileging its own community. This statement contradicted monitors from the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which declared the election free and fair. BELLIGERENTS: Guinea-Bissau Government (of President Joao Bernardo Vieira) with. Professors: Don’t miss TMC’s expanding list of classroom topic guides. The country accused France of establishing camps and arms caches along Guinea’s borders with Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. Unfortunately, the signs are ominous for Guinea, as people’s frustrations seem to have reached explosive potential. My most fervent wish is that the international community, and in particular the Europeans, do not shut their eyes to what is happening in Guinea right now. Is there any hope for peace and democracy? It’s rare that African incumbents come up short in their efforts to bend democratic rules and instead bend to popular resistance. The case of Guinea should be of concern to everyone. We need a consensual constitution not tailored for one person or community, but based on human rights. Governments tend to respond to electoral protests with violent repression — as was the case in Burundi and Congo in recent years. However, the recruitment process was not transparent, and Condé introduced elements of his personal militia into the security forces, most of whom had been part of his rebel group against dictator Ahmed Sékou Touré. Tournons la Page (“Let’s Turn the Page”) is a Pan-African activist group dedicated to strengthening democracy. On Oct. 23, it issued a news release calling on Western powers to sanction the Guinean government, denounce post-election violence and protect civil society. Issoufou, on his part, has vowed not to contest his country’s December election, having served his maximum of two terms. The country is in disastrous conditions in terms of infrastructure; roads and electricity are especially lacking. Mr. Barry, how do you see the current situation in Guinea and is it different to observe it from Germany? The war in Guinea has been termed "Portugal's Vietnam". The Guinea-Bissau Civil War, fought from 07 June 1998 to 10 May 1999, was triggered by Brigadier-General Ansumane Mané's coup d'état attempt against the government of President João Bernardo Vieira. By BBC regional analyst Elizabeth Blunt . The capital … In April of 1960, Guinea exposed the French plan to topple Sékou Touré. Seeing it from Germany gives me a broader perspective because I have access to more information coming from different sources and regions. Will Guinea slide into chaos? The actual political parties have in most cases been created for their own protection by former ministers under the military dictatorship of Lansana Conté. In 2008, a junta seized power after the death of longtime dictator Lansana Conté. The Guinea-Bissau Civil War was triggered by an attempted coup d'état against the government of President João Bernardo Vieira led by Brigadier-General Ansumane Mané in June 1998. Ten years of fighting for autonomy from Papua New Guinea and a brutal civil war ravaged the country in the 80s and 90s. What makes electoral protests more likely to result in pro-democratic outcomes, like the exit of an autocrat, rather than entrenched dictatorship? These are Africa’s presidents for life! Over the past two weeks, at least several dozen Guineans have died in clashes between protesters and security forces, following President Alpha Condé’s Oct. 18 reelection. Independence was granted by the United States in … Last night I was on edge. In your opinion, are there any political parties trying to break with this ethnic logic and adopting a more inclusive notion of citizenship? An Internet blackout and eyewitness reports of government security forces attacking civilians suggest that Condé is willing to go to extreme lengths to remain in power. What Guinea lacks is good governance and the rule of law. The building where Jackson died quickly became a hallowed place. Condé has, thus, managed to tribalize the police, the gendarmerie, and the regular republican army, which today is composed of a single ethnic group, the Malinké. The Guinea-Bissau Civil War was fought from 7 June 1998 to 10 May 1999 and was triggered by an attempted coup d'état against the government of President João Bernardo Vieira led by Brigadier-General Ansumane Mané. I can only imagine what happens if such an ethnic conflict reaches beyond national borders! Defying Dictatorships: An Interview with Garry Kasparov, On Atlantic Alliances and Autocrats: An Interview with Jeanne Shaheen, Bitter-Tasting Sugar: the United States, Haiti and Racism in Dominican Bateyes. Bougainville Revolutionary Army leader Francis Ona, barefoot and wearing a bush hat, in 1994 during the decade-long civil war in the archipelago. If Guinea achieves strong rule of law, it could ensure adequate development of the country with jobs and prospects for our children who would no longer need to immigrate to Europe. He set up the Bougainville Interim Government (BIG), but it had little power, and the island began to descend into disarray. The situation is indeed very serious as the opposition has previously always appealed for appeasement. Presidents who reach their term limits step down only about half the time without trying to change the constitution — those who attempt to stay in power nearly always succeed, despite public outcry. The current scale of injustice in the country and people’s frustrations can, in my opinion, easily lead to the outbreak of a civil war. Peuls have long suffered discrimination, and are now being targeted in the electoral violence. In simpler terms: France was setting up Guinea for a civil war. Ansumane Mane, the country’s former Chief of Staff who had been suspended by President Vieira for allegedly arming a separatist movement, led a military rebellion against the government, triggering the war. All the democratic gains that we have achieved, the respect of human and political rights, and for laws in general, have been dismantled by corruption. After their morning council, Grant and Meade had ridden past the Fifth Corps columns and were now approaching Guinea Station, Cavalry clashed at Guinea Station on the morning of May 21, 1864, leading to the first casualty of the fight for the North Anna River. Guinea had taken sides against rebel leader Charles Taylor in Liberia's civil war and was part of the Nigerian-led ECOMOG forces that intervened in the crisis. Contested elections in Africa at times erupt into bloodshed. However, my political party, the BAG (Bloc pour l’Alternance en Guinée) did not run for election because we neither recognize the new constitution nor the legitimacy of its resultant elections. It wasn't just the "ambassador." The whole opposition bloc had initially agreed to fight to remove Condé from power at the end of his term. Guinea, thus, contributed to populating its neighboring countries through its forced diaspora. Today, many Guineans are tired of these old leaders and profoundly doubt that they will lead the country to democracy. When the two met at a summit in October, Condé refused to shake Issoufou’s hand. Why some electoral protests succeed — and others fail. In May 1990, Papua New Guinea imposed a blockade on Bougainville. Cellou Dalein, leader of the opposition Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UDFG), believes he can beat Condé. Condé, Guinea’s first democratically elected president, survived an assassination attempt in 2011. I, therefore, fear that the use of force will be much more accentuated than in March when five churches were set on fire and more than 120 people were killed. Guinea is indeed doing very badly. While that scenario would be unprecedented in the United States, Africa has some experience with presidents who refuse to cede power — like the current election standoff in Guinea. What is the role of law enforcement authorities in this regard? Diallo would be Guinea’s first president from the country’s largest ethnic group, the Peul. A large part of the population, including some the ethnic group of the Malinké who used to support him, do not trust Condé anymore. Guinea has, however, teetered on the edge of significant conflict. In addition to Condé’s rising authoritarianism, Guinea remains caught in the vicious cycle of bad governance and poverty despite its mineral wealth, making it “a trapped country”. The next year, government troops massacred and raped citizens who were demanding an end to military rule. Civil war fears in Guinea. Condé’s support base is primarily Malinke and Soussou. Our country is fortunate to be naturally endowed with mining, agricultural, and human resources that would be capable of ensuring prosperity to our population. Are there any historical reasons playing a role in this conflict that need to be considered to find a solution, or at least to avoid a bloodbath? Socially, economically, and educationally, Guinea is in a dilapidated state where all sectors are red; it is despairing. However, the most serious problem is the division of our society. Research by Dawn Brancati suggests democratic transitions are more likely to occur in the year following larger protests as opposed to smaller protests. Do you believe the scale of violence will increase? The 2014 uprisings in Burkina Faso forced President Blaise Compaoré into exile in neighboring Côte d’Ivoire — where the current president is vying for a controversial third term on Saturday. If Guinea is destabilized, it will push the youth and the poor to embark on the path of exile. In the countryside, most information is still distributed orally. How do you view the elections of October 18, 2020? Moreover, he no longer has any political allies in the West African region except the Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara, who also aspires to a third illegitimate term as well. West Papua is the western half of the island of New Guinea, formerly known as … The situation in Guinea is dramatic and worrying. In Guinea's neighboring countries, notably Mali and Ivory Coast, similar political crises are taking place. It encompasses colonial wars, wars of independence, secessionist and separatist conflicts, major episodes of national violence (riots, massacres, etc. The Second Liberian Civil War began in 1999 when a rebel group backed by the government of neighbouring Guinea, the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy, emerged in northern Liberia. This is their main problem, making them unable to overcome personal interests. 1999 — Guinea-Bissau, to end the Guinea-Bissau Civil War; In 2001, ECOWAS planned to deploy 1,700 men along the Guinea–Liberia border to stop guerrilla infiltration by fighters opposed to the new post-1998 election government. Much of what I'd read about Bougainville before arriving painted a picture of a troubled and unstable country. The turmoil in Guinea thus revolves around electoral transparency, and not just Condé’s third term. Ansumane Mane. That is why he does not refrain from sending the army and his militia to kill opponents and demonstrators; he cannot bear to leave power alive. It seems like he has no other notion of power than this form of modern absolutism. I am convinced that Condé cannot maintain power without using violence. He has also recently tweeted in support of other African protests, including the #EndSARS movement in Nigeria. What is more: we have already experienced a brutal dictatorship for 26 years that caused more than 50,000 deaths and drove many prominent intellectuals and community members to exile, weakening civil society. The opposition bloc is at critical juncture, having protested for over a year against the anti-democratic means Condé adopted to maintain power: a questionable constitutional referendum, repeated human rights abuses, electoral fraud, and the violent repression of the recent demonstrations. From your perspective, how will the opposition react? Only this way we can restart our country on all levels: economic, industrial, and social. The resistance of the opposition will inevitably lead to a confrontation between the population and the army. These elections will lead us to chaos because they lack any consensus. Diallo named himself the rightful winner of last week’s election, claiming to have won 53 percent of the vote, not the 33 percent reported by the national electoral commission. Tournons la Page dismissed the stamp of approval from election observers, tweeting, “The AU and ECOWAS said they are satisfied with the electoral process, while forgetting that an election is not defined solely by the calm that surrounds the actual voting. I know that over the last year, the Guinean army has used its weapons against the Fulani population, which is notably also the community of the political opponent Cellou Dalein Diallo. Guinea-Bissau Civil War. “I have no security… What have outside observers said about Guinea’s election? From the Parking Lot: Sign about Guinea Station in 1864 Guinea’s speaker, Cipriano Cassama who had been elected by parliament as president resigned from office on Sunday, citing the risk of civil war and danger for his family. Guinea is an unincorporated community in Caroline County, Virginia, United States.Guinea is 8.5 miles (13.7 km) northwest of Bowling Green.The modern spelling of the name has been altered from the earlier "Guiney" or "Guiney's", so called after an old Caroline County family, the Guineys (also spelled Guinney, Gwinny, or Ginny in various records). In my opinion, an inter-ethnic conflict in Guinea means that all other Peul and Malinké communities of Central Africa would be concerned as well. Then, in total absence of law, equity, and justice, other communities take up arms in defense of their interests. People flooded the streets last week and the opposition declared the results fraudulent after Guinea’s electoral commission announced that Condé had won 59 percent of the vote. The plan was to invade Guinea and topple Sékou Touré’s government. New generations should have a chance to serve their country! As a consequence, President Conté's relations with Taylor remained sour after Taylor became Liberia's president in 1997. Most of the conflicts that we experience in many parts of Africa have their roots in the colonial period and are due to the creation of artificial states, which have divided several communities. Sign up for our newsletter. Indeed, the lack of prospects and low literacy rates have led to mass emigration of Guinea’s extremely young population, posing further constraints on the development of the country. Among its visitors during the Civil War was Union General U. S. Grant, who passed through during his 1864 campaign and spoke with Mrs. Chandler about Jackson's death. But, this time it is intent to resist and fight Condé’s aspiration to a third term. The jungles of Guinea and the proximity of the PAIGC's allies near the border proved to be of significant advantage in providing tactical superiority during cross-borde… Photograph: … As the army executed 157 people and publicly raped over a hundred women, the newly elected Condé proclaimed reforms to regulate the army. He had been criticizing the dictatorships in Guinea for over 40 years as a political activist, but fighting an incumbent dictator does not make someone automatically a democrat. Following a series of border attacks from rebels, the West African republic of Guinea may now be threatened with the kind of civil war faced by … The Guinea-Bissau Civil War engulfed the west-African country of Guinea-Bissau between June 7th, 1998 and May 10th, 1999. ). With a fiercely contested election of their own next week, will Americans find themselves in uncharted territory? Do you see the risk of a destabilization of the entire region? The Bougainville Civil War, also known as the Bougainville conflict, was a multi-layered armed conflict fought from 1988 to 1998 in the North Solomons Province of Papua New Guinea (PNG) between PNG and the secessionist forces of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA), and between the BRA and other armed groups on Bougainville. If he wants to maintain power, he must use the army, the police, and the militia that he himself has trained. This could save human lives and prevent an entire people from plunging into chaos. Most of the protesters in Guinea seem to be backers of Condé’s opponent, Cellou Dalein Diallo. Why do some elections in Africa turn violent? This will surely lead to a violent reaction from the opponents. It is simply a matter of creating the conditions to attract those people. For example, during demonstrations in Conakry, the army fired bullets at protestors—even at children—killing and chasing them through neighborhoods. A number of raskol(criminal) gangs that were affiliated with the BRA, equipped largely with weapons salva… Many in Guinea disagree. Vs. Rebel Army troops led by former Army Commander. Condé and Diallo have a long rivalry, having faced each other in two previous elections. Condé has always been one to make a lot of noise. The representatives of these African bodies neglect weaknesses in voter registration, repression of the opposition and civil society, and defiance on the part of certain political and social actors toward the Independent Electoral Commission …”. I think that one of the biggest challenges for Guinea will be to overcome ethnic cleavages and to reach social reconciliation. The interview was conducted in French and translated to English by Ghirardello. Francis Ona responded by unilaterally declaring independence. With the support of 1,300 Senegalese and 400 Guinean soldiers, troops loyal to the go… What’s happening in Guinea is one example of the fury and uncertainty that can follow a disputed election, particularly if an incumbent refuses to step down when their time is up. Some Americans may be wringing their hands about the possibility President Trump might refuse to leave office if he loses the election. Vieira dismissed the suspended Mané and appointed General Humberto Gomes to replace him on 6 June 1998. In the opposition’s eyes, everything is being done on an illegal basis through the corrupt mechanism Condé has set up in all national institutions. The main indigenous revolutionary insurgent movement, the Marxist African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde or PAIGC was well-trained, well-led, and equipped and received substantial support from safe havens in neighbouring countries like Senegal and Guinea-Conakry. The Cold War comes to Africa, as Guinea gains its independence The former French colony of Guinea declares its independence on October 2, 1958, with Sekou Toure … Some African leaders, too, are encouraging their counterparts to respect democracy. Don’t miss any of our smart analysis! Unfortunately, the main opposition party, the UFDG of Cellou Dalein Diallo decided to run for election anyway. Since Guinea is one of the most backward countries in terms of telecommunications, only the young people in the main cities have access to the internet and social networks. The most important news stories of the day, curated by Post editors and delivered every morning. Up until now, Guinea has remarkably avoided the scale of civil war and ethnic strife that has in the past beleaguered its neighbors Côte d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Liberia and Mali. Here’s what you need to know. Government forces, backed by neighbouring states, clashed with the coup leaders who had quickly gained almost total control over the country's armed forces. This is notably the case of the Malinké and the Peul, who can be found in Guinea and all other neighboring countries. Political parties of the new generation, such as the Liberal Bloc or my party, the Bloc for Alternation in Guinea, are more nation-based and mobilize the youth, women, and various other people through their political projects and visions rather than through ethnicity. Guinea Conflict The civil wars that engulfed Liberia and then Sierra Leone during the 1990s negatively affected relations between Guinea and these two fellow Mano River Union member countries. Unfortunately, the signs are ominous for Guinea, as people’s frustrations seem to have reached explosive potential. Guinea blames rebel attacks on neighbouring countries. These parties are therefore based on their families, on their communities and villages, and keeping up a very strong communitarian ideology. Lisa Mueller is an assistant professor of political science at Macalester College and the author of “Political Protest in Contemporary Africa” (Cambridge University Press, 2018). Also, they are merely technocrats. As these preconditions are considered to make a country prone to civil wars and instability, the question about the future of the country is more relevant than ever. On 7 June, rebelling troops led by Ansumane Mané seized control of military barracks in Bissau as well as other strategic locations in the city, including the international airport. Will Guinea slide into chaos? Elections in Africa offer a reminder that a smooth and democratic result is nothing to take for granted. International pressure can make a difference. It went through two cycles of civil war, starting in 1989. 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